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Well. On one hand, Australia's protracted bid to organize the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the rights to host the largest global climate summit and green trade fair, which would have attracted many thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next fall.

This won't occur. Instead, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a major let down to many people who had believed hosting the environmental gathering could help speed up the country's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been questions that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials really wanted the proposal to be approved. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to reports in the Australian and international media saying the administration was walking away.

This contrasted with the message being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the administration have only occasionally appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and sometimes completely against.

There is little sign Albanese has viewed international climate meetings a important focus. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to consider it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the announcement on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on that day an novel agreement that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, host and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", managing almost all nations on the matters that the countries actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively combat the environmental emergency.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been finalized at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could fall over before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on climate change.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the international community as having been determined on creating disruption in the UN climate process. This framework is designed to operate by consensus. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey plainly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had backed the southern pitch.

But, uniquely, Ankara refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been used frequently in recent days, and not just by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to confront the oil producers that provided the Turkish government with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is considered close to the Russian leader. Some countries worried about a summit hindered from the top if his government led the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to organize an underprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was necessary. The UN system is imperfect and often unsettling to observe, but global cooperation has empirically had an impact in the fight against climate change. This joint approach is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who participate in UN conferences see the minister as a force for good in the talks. He has been asked to lead discussion groups at multiple summits he has participated in.

This is significant. Although some have dismissed the role of a "chief negotiator", specialists from research centers and veteran observers at environmental negotiations say it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a leader directing proceedings who can listen, forge agreement and achieve an significant result. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the conference other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unanswered questions. For example, civil society is essential at environmental summits. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a restriction on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this arrangement looking like the best chance available to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific region, the nation and the global community. It's worth a try.