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The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, though experts believe PVV is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and established a four-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is projected to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has declined since 2023, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid a dispute concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a election period dominated by topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with several experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no one party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is shut out of government. However, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is uncertain and government negotiations could take months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive coalition led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.