Why Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Struggles With Putin Concerning Ukraine
Reports of an impending American-Russian presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he planned to meet Russia's leader Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump informed the press at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
- Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks shelved
- Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky departs White House without results
The frequently changing summit is another development in Trump's attempts to broker an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a topic of renewed focus for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in the North African country last week to celebrate that truce deal, the president turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he declared.
However, the conditions that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for the negotiation team may be challenging to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Less Leverage
According to Witkoff, the key to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's move to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave Trump bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump gained from a long record of siding with Israel since his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the legality of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.
Combine Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has much less influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has warned to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the conflict.
At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, halting briefly information exchange with the country and suspending arms shipments to the country - then to retreat in the face of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the entire region.
Trump often boasts about his ability to sit down and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.
The Russian president may actually be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.
In July, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it seemed probable that Trump would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.
Last week, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned the US president who then promoted the possible meeting in Budapest.
The following day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the White House, but departed without agreements after a allegedly strained discussion.
The US leader insisted that he was not being played by Putin.
"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he remarked.
But the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the sequence of events.
"Once the matter of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia quickly became less interested in negotiations," he said.
So, in a matter of days, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately urging Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – including territory Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately decided on advocating a truce along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.
During his election campaign previously, the candidate promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since discarded that commitment, admitting that concluding the hostilities is proving more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when neither side wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.